Author Topic: EV change when running it twice  (Read 307 times)

Sammyy90

  • TDA Member
  • *
  • Posts: 2
EV change when running it twice
« on: October 26, 2022, 11:46:46 AM »
So I work as a headbrush in sweden and our rule of running it twice is as following:
For a single pot everybody involved in that pot needs to agree to run it twice for it to be avaliable, however when we have side pots our rule slightly changes and we have a EV discussion because of this.
Player A is all in on main pot while B and C have a side pot, players B and C can still run it twice even though player A doesnt want to, however if player A wins the first run then there will be no run it twice. For it to be run twice either player B or C needs to win the first run.

My question is, can the EV change in this situation?

Base scenario when all players “run it once”. This will give us true values for EV and expected win in the long term for each player:

Player A A♠K♠ Player B A♥A♦ Player C 8♠7♠
Board
A♣5♠Q♠7♥

Player A: 16.67% Player B: 83.33% Player C: 0% EV Main Pot

Player A: 83.33% Player B: 16.67% EV Side Pot

Player A: 300.06 SEK Player B: 2166.58 SEK Player C: 133.36 SEK Expected win SEK

And now let’s take a look at scenario when player A “runs it once” but players B and C “run it twice” with our currently valid rules:

Player A A♠K♠  Player B A♥A♦ Player C 8♠7♠
Board
A♣5♠Q♠7♥

Player A: 16.67% Player B: 83.33% Player C: 0% EV Main Pot 1 street

Player A: 83.33% * Player B: 82% = 68.33% Player C 83.33% * 18% = 15% EV Main Pot 2 street

Player A: 16.67%  Player B: 83.33%/2 + 68.33%/2 = 75.83% Player C: 0%/2 + 15%/2 = 7.5% Total EV Main Pot

Player B: 83.33% Player C: 16.67% EV Side Pot

Player A: 300.06 SEK Player B: 2031.58 SEK Player C: 268,36 SEK Expected win SEK

Is my math wrong?
« Last Edit: October 26, 2022, 11:48:04 AM by Sammyy90 »

Sammyy90

  • TDA Member
  • *
  • Posts: 2
Re: EV change when running it twice
« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2022, 11:58:56 AM »
I also want to point out that even if these numbers are correct, should it be a problem?
Player A is the one bringing this up but his EV will never change either way, while player B and C has somewhat a strategic choice to make.

Dave Miller

  • TDA Member & Veteran Poster
  • ***
  • Posts: 402
  • Lead dealer / rules guru for World Free Poker
    • Dave MIller Gaming
Re: EV change when running it twice
« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2022, 12:10:18 PM »
I also want to point out that even if these numbers are correct, should it be a problem?
Player A is the one bringing this up but his EV will never change either way, while player B and C has somewhat a strategic choice to make.
I assume you're talking about a cash game.

My brain hurts when I try to do math like this, so I'm ignoring that part of the question.

My local poker room does not allow running it twice when there are more than two players involved - even if the run twice is only for the side pot.

They theorize that having that option would encourage players who might otherwise fold, to call the side pot bet. They feel that it's a form of collusion, which I think is what you meant by your 'strategic choice' comment.
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown.
But how much does it cost to knock on wood?

Dave Miller

  • TDA Member & Veteran Poster
  • ***
  • Posts: 402
  • Lead dealer / rules guru for World Free Poker
    • Dave MIller Gaming
Re: EV change when running it twice
« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2022, 12:33:15 PM »
P.S.  I know that doesn’t really address your question…..
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown.
But how much does it cost to knock on wood?